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Brexit | Forum

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Marisa
Marisa Jun 22 '16
So, what do you think will happen tomorrow? Will UK stay in EU or leave? All my real-life friends from UK will vote "remain" tomorrow. We shall see... 
wind090
wind090 Jun 22 '16
I guess they will leave and we will end up in a mess with Merkel & Co. not being hard as they should but offering a compromise again.
billyHill Moderator
billyHill Jun 22 '16
I've heard of this recently, but been so busy with work I didn't even know it was being voted on by the people, let alone tomorrow.


Marisa
Marisa Jun 22 '16
omg, if UK leaves European Union it's going to be Armageddon on the stock exchange tomorrow!! US stocks will also plummet. 
wind090
wind090 Jun 22 '16

If UK leaves this may mean the stock exchange will move to Frankfurt. Congratulations Brexit supporters you are in fact ruining your economy not improving it!


Marisa
Marisa Jun 23 '16
UK left.... Armageddon has started. 


This might trigger another world recession and global bear market, like in 2008.   

Quarnicus
Quarnicus Jun 24 '16
Well over the next few years countries will bail from the United States of Europe like rats from a sinking ship
wind090
wind090 Jun 24 '16

Not if the EU stays hard now with the Brits. The EU can't afford now to make any gifts to Britain as this may mean that other countries may leave, too.

So the best Britain may get by now is the same Norway got. But this in fact means a step back for Britain as they would loose all the special things Mrs. Thatcher had negotiated for them, they would still have to fulfill all the EU-standards without having a handle to negotiate them), they would still have to pay for the EU-economomy balancing and they would still have to open their borders for EU-workers (which made most vote for Brexit).

So in best case yesterday they've changed their Ferrari for an ox cart.  "> In worst case now maybe Scottland and Northern Ireland may opt to leave the UK and the remaining Britain may have to pay duties for exporting their goods and services to the EU, which may result in a economic downfall for Britain. So to take that comparison again they gave their Ferrari and not even got shoes to walk.  ">

Don't know how much the EU will be effected by that decision. For Britain its definitely a loss.

billyHill Moderator
billyHill Jun 24 '16
lots of "what ifs" can happen, Wind. No one can predict the future except that we will all die someday, and chances are good pay taxes until that day of death arrives

When stocks destabilize the best thing to do is buy precious or semi precious metals that you can hold in your hands ( as opposed to some piece of paper saying you can trade this paper for the metal).

Gold and silver prices go up when markets go down, I just checked and gold went up about $60 yesterday ( per ounce).

If anyone can post some links to news articles about this Brexit thing, I'd like to read up on it. Hopefully the articles can be from both right and left sides of the argument.
Marisa
Marisa Jun 24 '16
too late to buy gold, Billy. It is already expensive. This is not how you do it. You buy low sell high, regardless of the asset: be it stocks, gold or real estate. You have to make a bet that something will go up in value beforehand. You either win or you lose, that's how it works. And when you buy with a crowd when the price already went up you'll always be a loser. That's buying high.


As for UK, I guess the main reason why they voted to LEAVE was because they were fed up with immigrants from Poland, Portugal, etc.. Strange, they have no problem with immigrants from India and Pakistan, but have problems with European immigration. I guess Americans will vote for Trump for the very same reason: to stop immigration. I was sure Trump would never win, but now I am not so sure.  As we can see, this intolerance to immigrants can be quite powerful.


Well, wind, now Germany is left all alone to feed the whole EU. I am sorry for you, folks. 

billyHill Moderator
billyHill Jun 24 '16
Marisa, when all that paper money ( printed by governments or stocks-- no matter what you want to call it) goes belly up, precious metals, rocks, and weapons will be the only things of decent value. Silver was about $18/ ounce last time I checked and that is down from a high of about $50/ounce in2011.

You can call me a prepper if you want, chances are good that is a true statement. I will not be left crying that I've lost all of my money like I did back in 06-08 when the US markets crashed and burned. And the only people who were refunded their money were the banks, not the people that lost millions of retirement income due to some idiots need to manipulate the existing system to their advantage
Marisa
Marisa Jun 24 '16
the problem with hard assets is: in order to be of any value you have to sell them. Otherwise, what good does it do when you know that something is worth something, but you cannot actually benefit from it, unless you sell. Stocks pay dividends, real estate you can rent out and collect rent, but how do you collect any value from a hard asset without selling it? You have to guess correctly when to sell: not too early, not too late. This is what I don't like about hard assets, I am not good at selling.
billyHill Moderator
billyHill Jun 24 '16
Stocks are diving...... when will they stop going down and either die or rise up again??  I'm going to guess there won't be a dividend check this quarter, Marisa ....  that is even if the companies don't go completely broke because of the sell off...  Then you are left with a pretty piece of paper to hang on the wall telling how you owned part of a company, a worthless memory of what used to be ...
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/06/24/brexit-bombshell-torpedoes-global-markets/86323890/

U.S. stocks nosedived Friday as investors stunned by United Kingdom voters' move to exit the European Union and Prime Minister David Cameron's subsequent resignation announcement sent global markets into a tailspin.



Amid swirling uncertainty over the impact of the  "Brexit," the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 515 points in midday trading, a 2.9% drop. The S&P 500 was off 3%, while the Nasdaq composite was down 3.7%.

About $675 billion in U.S. market value had been erased in Friday’s sell-off as of about noon ET, as measured by the Wilshire 5000 index.



Oxford Economics projected that the U.K.'s gross domestic product would fall by 1.3 percentage points over the next two years. Bearish investor sentiment hit a three-month high, according to a Bank of American Merrill Lynch Global Research gauge.


billyHill Moderator
billyHill Jun 24 '16
another one by Reuters

Global stock markets lost about $2 trillion in value on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union, while sterling suffered a record one-day plunge to a 31-year low and money poured into safe-haven gold and government bonds.


The blow to investor confidence and the uncertainty the vote has sparked could keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as planned this year, and even spark a new round of emergency policy easing from major central banks.


The move blindsided investors, who had expected Britain to vote to stay in the EU, and sparked sharp repricing across asset classes. Mainland European equity markets took the brunt of selling as investors feared the vote could destabilize the 28-member bloc by prompting more referendums.


The traditional safe-harbor assets of top-rated government debt, the Japanese yen and gold all jumped. Spot gold rose over 4 percent and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a low of 1.406 percent, last seen in 2012, but climbed higher in afternoon trading.


Stocks tumbled in Europe. Frankfurt .GDAXI and Paris .FCHI each fell 7 percent to 8 percent. Italian .FTMIB and Spanish .IBEX markets posted their sharpest one-day drops ever, falling more than 12 percent led by a dive in European bank stocks .SX7P. Italy's Unicredit (CRDI.MI) fell 24 percent while Spain's Banco Santander (SAN.MC) fell 20 percent.


London's FTSE .FTSE, however, dropped 3.2 percent, with some investors speculating that the plunge in sterling could benefit Britain's economy.


"Big institutional customers saw this morning's event as a much more longer-term opportunity. So names that were really dislocated found plenty of bids, plenty of support," said Ken Polcari, director of the NYSE floor division at O’Neil Securities in New York.


Still, Britain's big banks took a $100 billion battering, with Lloyds (LLOY.L), Barclays (BARC.L) and RBS (RBS.L) plunging as much as 30 percent, although they cut those losses in half later in the day.

Stocks on Wall Street traded down around 3 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average dropping as much as 544 points.


The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 520.19 points, or 2.89 percent, to 17,490.88. The S&P 500 .SPX slid 65.75 points, or 3.11 percent, to 2,047.57 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC lost 182.46 points, or 3.72 percent, to 4,727.58.


MSCI's all-country world stock index .MIWD00000PUS fell 4.4 percent.

Voting results showed a 51.9/48.1 percent split for leaving, setting the UK on an uncertain path and dealing the largest setback to European efforts to forge greater unity since World War Two.


The British pound dived by 18 U.S. cents at one point, easily the biggest fall in living memory, to its lowest since 1985. The euro slid 3 percent to $1.1050 EUR= as investors feared for its very future.


Sterling was last down 7.4 percent at $1.3775 GBP=, having carved out a range of $1.3228 to $1.5022. The fall was even larger than during the global financial crisis and the currency was moving two or three cents in the blink of an eye.


The Bank of England, European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China all said they were ready to provide liquidity if needed to ensure global market stability.



SHOCKWAVES


The shockwaves affected all asset classes and regions.

The safe-haven yen jumped 3.9 percent to 102.21 per dollar JPY=, having been as low as 106.81. The dollar's peak decline of 4 percent was the largest since 1998.


Emerging market currencies across Asia and eastern Europe and South Africa's rand all buckled on fears that investors could pull out. Poland's zloty PLN= slumped 4 percent.


Europe's safety play, the 10-year German government bond, surged with yields tumbling back into negative territory and a new record low.


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS slid almost 3.3 percent. Tokyo's Nikkei .N225 saw its worst fall since 2011, down 7.9 percent.


Investors stampeded into low-risk sovereign bonds, with U.S. 10-year notes US10YT=RR gained around 1.5 points in price to yield 1.570 percent. Earlier, the yield dipped to 1.406 percent.


The rally even extended to UK bonds, despite a warning from ratings agency Standard & Poor's that it was likely to downgrade Britain's triple-A credit rating if it left the EU. Yields on benchmark 10-year gilts fell 27 basis points to 1.096 pct GB10YT=TWEB.


Across the Atlantic, investors were pricing in less chance of another hike in U.S. interest rates given the Federal Reserve had cited a British exit from the EU as one reason to be cautious on tightening.


"A July (hike) is definitely off the table," said Mike Baele, managing director with the private client reserve group at U.S. Bank in Portland, Oregon.


Fed funds futures <0#FF:> were even toying with the chance that the next move could be a cut in U.S. rates.

Oil prices slumped by more than 4 percent amid fears of a broader economic slowdown that could reduce demand. U.S. crude CLc1 shed $2.36 to $47.77 a barrel while Brent LCOc1 fell 4.7 percent to $48.50 before.

Industrial metal copper CMCU3 sank 2.1 percent but gold XAU= galloped nearly 5 percent higher thanks to its perceived safe haven status.


(Editing by Nick Zieminski and Bernard Orr)








More From ReutersBritain has written a cheque it cannot cash|24 JunGerman trade body chief says Brexit vote is catastrophic|23 JunNexit, Frexit or Italeave? British vote fires up EU's 'Outers'|24 JunGood Morning America: Britain just voted out of the EU ... What's that mean for Amer|24 JunTexan puts baby in fridge after leaving her in hot car: police|22 JunInvestors pull $6 billion from U.S. stock funds before Brexit vote: Lipper|23 JunAs Cameron loses biggest gamble, Johnson looks biggest winner|24 JunFlint children's blood lead levels rose in water crisis: U.S. officials|24 JunSpain to seek co-sovereignty on Gibraltar after Brexit|24 JunFactbox: What Brexit could mean for the UK economy|23 Jun Breakingviews Wads of British Pound Sterling banknotes are stacked in piles at the GSA Austria (Money Service Austria) company's headquarters in Vienna July 22, 2013.  REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File PhotoUK writes a check it can't cash World reacts to Brexit vote REUTERS/Rob Stothard/PoolPictures of the day REUTERS/KCNA Trending On Reuters
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wind090
wind090 Jun 24 '16
Besides your in sorrow for your money the problem is much more severe! Sometimes I got the feeling we are back in 1909! All those nationalism all around!   "> Seems the people are on the same drug right now they abused 1914! We first and may the others pay our bills!  ">
Marisa
Marisa Jun 24 '16

nope, not the ones I hold like Walmart, Philip Morris or AT&T. People will always eat, smoke and use utilities, even in recessions. They never stopped paying dividends. That's pure envy talking in you, Billy. lol.

Quote from billyHillI'm going to guess there won't be a dividend check this quarter, Marisa ....  that is even if the companies don't go completely broke because of the sell off...  Then you are left with a pretty piece of paper to hang on the wall telling how you owned part of a company, a worthless memory of what used to be ...
Marisa
Marisa Jun 24 '16

Britain just voted out of the EU ... What's that mean for America?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-usa-q-a-idUSKCN0ZA21Y



Britons have voted to leave the European Union, an outcome that has shocked global financial markets, sending stocks plunging and sovereign bonds and the U.S. dollar sharply higher.


The decision is expected to have global implications, some of which may take years to play out. Here are some effects Americans can expect to feel as a result of so-called "Brexit."


RETIREMENT FUNDS


On balance, about half of most Americans' retirement funds are invested in stocks, and they are expected to take a beating on the worry that the British decision to leave the EU will destabilize the global economy and torpedo corporate profits.


Early Friday, equity index futures were pointing to declines in excess of 3 percent for major U.S. benchmark indexes like the Standard & Poor's 500 .SPX and Nasdaq Composite .IXIC.


While Treasury bonds are rallying on the result, courtesy of their status as a global safe-haven asset, those price gains mean that already meager bond yields are going even lower. This diminishes their ability to deliver substantial income for investors and savers.


MORTGAGE RATES AND HOME PRICES


One upside could be for would-be homeowners, or those looking to refinance or with adjustable-rate loans. For them the cost for buying a house is likely to drop, at least in the near term.


Even before the Brexit vote, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at its lowest since May 2013 at 3.76 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.


On Friday the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note US10YT=RR, to which most mortgages are indexed, dropped to below 1.50 percent, meaning borrowing costs for home purchases should head lower as well. The last time the 10-year note yield was this low was 2012, and that coincided with the average 30-year mortgage rate briefly dropping below 3.5 percent, the lowest in the post-World War Two era.


That could add fuel to a pretty hot U.S. housing market. Existing homes are selling at their fastest rate since 2007, while sales of new homes are proceeding near their most brisk pace since 2008. Home prices in the 20 largest metropolitan areas are, on average, the highest since late 2007.


THE DOLLAR


The U.S. dollar is rising sharply, which could put the brakes on U.S. exports, damaging the sales and profits of dozens of multinational companies based in the United States.


Add to that the fact that Britain is the No. 5 buyer of U.S. goods and services, totaling about $56 billion last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The British pound has plummeted by the most ever in a single day, about 8 percent, to its weakest level in three decades, and that will make U.S. products substantially more expensive in the United Kingdom.


But that's not all. The dollar has also surged by nearly 3 percent against the euro, and the EU is an even bigger export market for the United States, totaling $272 billion last year.


That spells trouble for the hundreds of U.S. companies with substantial revenue from Britain and the rest of Europe. Non-U.S. sales will now be worth less when translated back into dollars. U.S. corporate profits are already in the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines, to which the dollar's strength over the last three years was a significant contributor. A renewed bout of dollar strength risks extending that slump.


On the upside, traveling to Britain and the rest of Europe is likely to become noticeably cheaper.

Quarnicus
Quarnicus Jun 24 '16
 LOL  don't Sucker into that fear mongering y'all..... On my God the Dow Jones is down nearly 700 bucks( shhhhh don't tell nobody it's only 3% ), why would this have any affect on components of the Dow Jones like Apple Catapillar Disney IBM blah blah blah blah blah.... oh I get it if you're not in the EU you can't buy a laptop ...

 Don't let speculators ruin your day or your financial plan stick to it ..


 The European Union is way past it's usefulness , it was only created to slow Russian expansionism In Eastern Europe,  


 I doubt this is the end of the world but in retrospect 

  I remember back in 2008 number my friends freaked out started moving money around in their retirement plans and most of them lost big-time . What did I do ,I did nothing and my retirement is still intact with very little losses.


 

 Okay the global collapse,you got gold silver .. what that really gonna do for you , everybody's in on that game ,who's gonna buy it from you after this collapse ,  nobody it's useless . You're gonna get pennies on the dollar . You're much better off making seal a meal ingots out of beans and rice , now that would be valuable in a crisis .. You could use your silver and gold coins as ammo for a shotgun or a slingshot to take down small game , that's what I'm gonna use mine for ,yes I got suckered into that precious metals  game 20 years ago .
 Well be prepared France Netherlands Sweden Denmark Greece are all on the list trust me .. And many more will follow, it will be dissolved.

 Oh  immigration thing , they can't control their own immigration if you're in the EU you have to go by there mandates to allow these war-torn citizens that are refugees into your country just as we have to here in the United States as per the treaty with the UN.  .. I'm sure many of us Americans are familiar with the word "undocumented " 


 In short it's just a bunch of BS and will have little effect on anyone unless you're in the UK and you don't have to compete with the polish for an Uber job, or maybe a politician on the losing side cough cough 


 O God ,the clearinghouses love this stuff every settlement becomes across the table is money in their pocket so all the extra trading this is causing is making them happy,  look at the volumes, imagine all the partial cents alone that are skimmed off to each transaction, not mention the commissions


 There's just too many points to this .....like everybody hates globalism but when it starts to fall they freak out... That just freaking kills me, man I could go on for days about this but I hate typing on this stupid Kindle!!!!

Marisa
Marisa Jun 24 '16
absolutely agree with you about gold, I never understood people who invested in something they just bury in the backyard. Money should make money. Stock market always recover sooner or later and goes higher and higher with time, while gold doesn't, the only people who lose money in stock market are the ones who sell in panic. Those who didn't sell in 2008 didn't lose. 


Todays drop was indeed nothing, just 3%!! Geeeez, in February it was down around 15%, in UK it was 20%. I was buying like crazy. And today... I went bargain hunting, and couldn't find anything to buy, stocks are still sooo expensive. My British Marks and Spencer stock plummeted 20% today though, that was pretty bad, but it will recover one day, I have no doubt. 


London mostly voted to stay. Why? I guess that's because people who live there have better jobs, travel a lot, have property in Europe. My friends have property in Spain, and before they could go and live there as much as they want without any visas, and now they might need visa to stay there over 3 months, like Americans do.


The house prices are also important, my other UK friends just bought a house in London and need to sell their old home by the end of the year, and now they can get stuck and lose on both deals.


I also don't know what will be with pet travel, before UK had to go with EU rules, and now they might go back to their prior draconian pet quarantine, means I will not be able to travel to London with my dog. 


Also, if real estate prices will go up here in the US as a result of low interest rates, it is bad for me: I was planning to buy a property, but was waiting for the damn real estate bubble to blow, but now looks like it's not going to happen anytime soon.


What I am saying is: while all this seem "shallow", but those are practical, ordinary concerns of ordinary people. They live their life, work, have plans. For them their plans and life are more important than anything else. Nobody lies on the coach and contemplate about global economy.

coloradosweetheart
coloradosweetheart Jun 24 '16
Like Q said, "Stick to your plan."


I contribute the maximum to my 401(k), spread evenly throughout the year.  I won't change any of my current investments and will continue investing in my current elections.


My other portfolios are well-diversified, and I will take advantage of the lower prices during the nose dive...dollar cost averaging at its best.

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